How to Analyze the Competition Before You Bid

Marc runs a 12-person engineering consulting firm in the Montérégie region. In his first year in public procurement, he bid on everything that came through: 14 calls for tenders, 2 contracts won. In his second year, he changed his approach. Before every bid, he spent 30 minutes analyzing the results of past calls for tenders. The result: 8 bids, 4 contracts. Less volume, more precision.

The difference? Marc stopped bidding blind. And in Québec, all the information you need for that analysis is public.

What SEAO gives you for free

Every call for tenders published on SEAO leaves a trail once it's awarded. You can look up:

• The name of the supplier that won the contract
• The awarded contract amount
• The number of tenderers (for public calls for tenders)
• The amounts of each bid received (in some cases)

This information sits in SEAO's "Opening results and awarded contracts" section. Access is free; you don't need a paid account to consult it. For municipal contracts, SEAO also offers a dedicated "Contracts by organization" report that lists every contract a municipality has awarded over a one-year period, handy for seeing the volume and the types of contracts a body awards on a regular basis.

The four questions to answer

Before you bid on a contract, use the historical data to answer these questions:

1. Who wins this type of contract in this region?

Look up the contracts awarded in your line of business and your territory. If the same supplier has won the same type of contract for the last 5 years with the same body, you're facing a solidly entrenched incumbent. That doesn't mean winning is impossible, but it does mean you have to offer something different, not just a comparable price.

2. How many tenderers take part?

A call for tenders with 2-3 tenderers and one with 15 don't call for the same investment. The fewer competitors there are, the higher your odds of winning, and the more the effort you put into preparation is justified.

On Espace DATA, you can see the history of the number of tenderers for a body or a contract type. If a body consistently receives 2 bids for its cleaning contracts, that's a strong signal: competition is weak and the opportunity is real.

3. At what price are contracts awarded?

The awarded contract price is public. Compare it against your internal estimate:

• If the winning price is well below what you can offer, there are two explanations: either the winner has a very different cost structure, or it bid at a thin margin to lock in the contract. In both cases, ask yourself whether you can be competitive.
• If the winning price is within your range, that's a positive signal. Your cost structure is compatible with this contract. To get a sense of how wide these differences usually run, see our analysis of price gaps in public tenders.

4. Does the body renew this type of contract on a regular basis?

Some bodies publish the same type of call for tenders every year (maintenance, snow removal, supplies). If you spot a cycle, you can prepare your bid ahead of time, even before the notice is published. That's a considerable advantage over suppliers who discover the call for tenders the day it goes online.

The 30-minute method

Here's a concrete approach for analyzing the competition on a specific call for tenders:

Step 1 (5 min), Identify the body. Note the exact name of the buyer as it appears in the SEAO notice.

Step 2 (10 min), Search for past contracts. On SEAO or on Espace DATA, look up the contracts awarded by that body in your category. Go back at least 2-3 years.

Step 3 (10 min), Compile the data. For each contract you find, note: winning supplier, amount, number of tenderers (if available), award method.

Step 4 (5 min), Decide. With this data, you have a clear picture. Either the contract is accessible and the competition is reasonable, so you invest in preparation. Or the contract is locked up or your costs aren't competitive, so you move on to the next one.

Marc applies this method to a geotechnical studies contract for a municipality on the South Shore. The result: the same engineering firm has won this contract for 4 years, always on a quality-price basis, with only 3 tenderers on average. The awarded price is within his range. His read: competition is weak, the quality-price method lets him stand out on his technical offer, and the incumbent isn't unbeatable. He bids.

What the data doesn't tell you

Competitive analysis based on public data has its limits. A few blind spots to keep in mind:

The data doesn't show why a supplier won. The lowest price isn't always the deciding factor, especially on quality-price contracts. Methodology, the team's experience, and how well you understand the client's needs all count too.

The data doesn't reflect internal changes at the body. A new procurement director, a reorganization, a policy shift, these factors can upend award habits without the historical data showing it.

The data is less complete below the thresholds, but it doesn't disappear. At the municipal level, every body must publish on SEAO the list of contracts concluded of $25,000 and more, with their object, their amount, the award procedure used, the company's name and the date (LCOM, s. 99). That's what lets you see who gets what, and how. It's mainly the very small contracts, under $25,000, that remain hard to trace.

One clarification on the regime that applies below the threshold, because it is not a simple blanket use of mutual agreement. For a municipal body: under $25,000, internal rules and the contract management by-law are decisive. From $25,000 to less than $139,000, the default rule is a written invitation to at least two companies (LCOM, ss. 30 and 80); mutual agreement is possible only where the contract management by-law provides for it (s. 9). At $139,000 and above, the open procedure is mandatory. For a provincial body (LCOP): below the threshold, the body has more latitude (public call for tenders, invitation or mutual agreement), according to its internal rules. Practical takeaway for you: below the municipal threshold, the issue isn't waiting for a publication, it's being known to the buyer at the moment it chooses whom to invite.

The bottom line

The information is there, public and free. The difference between the SMEs that bid blind and the ones that win on a regular basis is often this analysis step. Thirty minutes of research can spare you dozens of hours of preparation on a contract you had no chance of winning, or give you the confidence to invest seriously where the opportunity is real.

Marc sums up his philosophy simply: "I don't bid just to bid anymore. I bid to win."

Sources

SEAO (seao.gouv.qc.ca), Données ouvertes Québec, Espace DATA (espacedata.ca).